Qualcomm needs competition in the Windows on Arm space

Five years ago, if you wanted a Windows on Arm laptop, you faced two huge problems. The first was that software support for Windows on Arm was dismal, with relatively few companies porting their x86/x64 programs to the Arm architecture. Meanwhile, x64 emulation was non-existent, and even x86 emulation felt questionable at times, making the transition from the x64 version of Windows to the Arm version tricky for most people. The second major problem was that you had too few hardware choices. At the tail end of 2019, you had just two new Windows on Arm laptops from which to choose. Ouch.

Today, things are much different. Windows on Arm is thriving, thanks in no small part to Apple forging the way by going all-in on Arm in 2020 with the launch of the first M-series chip. Now, more companies than ever are porting their software to Arm. Additionally, Microsoft has done a fantastic job getting Prism — its x86/x64 emulation layer — to perform wonders for seamless operation within Windows. Even more impressive, we saw over 50 Windows on Arm laptops launch this year alone. Fifty! That’s a far cry from two.

Unfortunately, there’s still one significant issue with the state of Windows on Arm today: anything you buy will come with a Qualcomm processor. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I can’t wait until that limitation is gone.

At CES this past January, I got an off-the-record sneak peek at a Qualcomm-branded test laptop running an early version of the Snapdragon X Elite chip. I couldn’t spend much time with it, but my first impression of the new processor (and the state of Windows on Arm) was pretty neutral. Yeah, the laptop seemed to work well, but Windows on Arm had been such a mess for so long. How could I believe Qualcomm when it said things would be different this time?

Well, I was wrong to be so pessimistic. As it turns out, Qualcomm has knocked it out of the park when it comes to the Snapdragon X series. The X Elite, in particular, is powerful, battery efficient, and can perform AI tricks we wouldn’t have even imagined five years ago. Meanwhile, the less expensive Snapdragon X Plus is no slouch either, bringing a toned-down (but still polished) experience to laptops under $1,000.

But Qualcomm’s real feat was getting pretty much every major laptop brand on board from Day One. This was helped, no doubt, by its very close partnership with Microsoft and that company’s promise to bring Windows on Arm up to the standards consumers need it to be at to justify making that investment. Even so, pulling together the entire industry to get behind this new strategy is incredible.

All this combined makes 2024 the first year ever that I told someone to realistically think about buying a Windows on Arm laptop. Qualcomm deserves the bulk of the credit for this feat (even if the previously sad state of Windows on Arm was kind of its fault, but that’s another story).

Unfortunately, Qualcomm having this much power over the future of not only Windows on Arm but Windows laptops in general is a scary proposition. Regardless of how great a job it’s done this year, the years before that in which Windows on Arm was basically dead on the vine prove that it needs competition. Thankfully, we might get that in 2025.

Under normal circumstances, we’d look to Intel to provide the competition Qualcomm needs here. However, Intel is in a truly sorry state at the moment, with its entire future in serious jeopardy. In fact, there are realistic rumors that Qualcomm might buy Intel. In other words, no competition there.

AMD is also making great strides in the x64 laptop space right now. However, the last time we heard anything substantial about AMD’s efforts in the world of Arm laptops was in 2023. At this point, we can assume AMD is still working on an Arm processor, but who knows when that could land.

Regardless of what’s happening behind the scenes at other companies, Qualcomm has an exclusive deal with Microsoft that gives it control over the Windows on Arm space for the time being. This makes sense: Qualcomm probably put billions of dollars behind this Snapdragon X campaign, and it wouldn’t do that without some perks and privileges.

We don’t know for certain how long this exclusive deal will last, but rumors abound it will terminate in 2025. At that point, any company that wanted to make an Arm-based chip for Windows laptops could do so. What’s really exciting is that we’ve already heard rumors about big names getting in on the fun.

Most notably, MediaTek is rumored to be working on a chip for Windows laptops. Early rumors suggested we could see an announcement at Computex 2024, but that didn’t pan out. It’s possible we could see something in January at CES 2025. Either way, what’s most exciting here is that MediaTek has allegedly partnered with NVIDIA for this product. If this ends up being true, this chipset could be just what Windows on Arm needs.

As great as the Snapdragon X series is, the onboard GPU leaves a lot to be desired. If MediaTek brings its processing power and NVIDIA brings its graphics and AI power, the resulting chipset could be a beast. MediaTek is also known for undercutting Qualcomm significantly when it comes to costs, meaning this MTK/NVIDIA chipset could land in laptops with lower price tags than what we’ve seen from Qualcomm.

Obviously, MediaTek, AMD, and NVIDIA bringing the heat will push Qualcomm to match it. Thus, the competition begins, with consumers winning either way. It will be a very exciting time for buying a Windows on Arm laptop.

Recently, I tested two versions of the same laptop: one running the Snapdragon X Elite and the other running the Intel Core Ultra 7 (i.e., Lunar Lake). You can read about my Snapdragon vs Lunar Lake bout at the link, but I’ll spoil the ending for you: I eventually sided with Lunar Lake.

However, the only reason I chose Lunar Lake over Snapdragon was because of software support. If you’re buying a laptop to use today and you need it to work reliably with programs from across various ecosystems, Lunar Lake is a sure bet, while Snapdragon is a wildcard. Even now, as I type this, Google Drive for Desktop is still in a beta phase for Windows on Arm, and popular Adobe products like After Effects and Audition don’t work at all on Arm. Oh yeah, and major games like Fortnite and Apex Legends don’t work on Snapdragon, either.

While those are very notable limitations, they are probably temporary. Now that the entire laptop industry is on board with Windows on Arm, it’s only a matter of time before the remaining unsupported popular programs get ports. It will be a long time before everything works, but progress is happening. Further down the road, Arm laptops with discrete GPUs will be available, making the idea of a Windows on Arm gaming laptop a reality. Once again, this all isn’t going to happen tomorrow, but it’s happening.

So, although I chose to stay with x64 in the end, I posited that I would eventually choose Arm in 2025. With MediaTek, AMD, and NVIDIA (hopefully) bringing some competition next year, there could be so many new and interesting Windows on Arm laptops to try. Who knows, we might even eventually see a true MacBook killer, meaning a Windows laptop with top-tier performance, all-day battery life, and zero processing drop when running on battery as compared to being plugged in. If that happens, I’ll happily kiss x64 laptops goodbye. Conversely, if the competition in the Windows on Arm space finally pushes AMD and Intel to create an x64 laptop processor that can power a MacBook killer, I’ll take that, too. I’m fine with whatever, as long as the Windows laptop industry stops resting on its laurels.

This is what the Windows laptop industry has needed for years now. I am very grateful to Qualcomm for making it possible. However, Qualcomm can’t be solely in charge — it’s led the way for seven years, and we’ve only started to make significant progress over the past few months. For Windows on Arm to truly take off, it needs competition, and the consumers must be in charge. Assuming that competition comes Qualcomm’s way in 2025, I predict the future of Windows laptops will be very bright indeed. And, most notably, that future will be all-in on Arm.