Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded the lowest level of fertility rates in England since records began – in 1938.
The fertility rate is defined as the average number children a woman would have in their lifetime. ONS data tracked it per local authority area.
Between 2022 and 2023, the rate for England and Wales fell from an average of 1.49 children per woman over a lifetime to 1.44.
The average age of mothers remained stable at 30.9, while fathers’ average age increased slightly from 33.7 in 2022 to 33.8 last year.
In York, the fertility rate of 1.04 was the lowest in the north of England, and among the lowest in the country. The only areas lower than York were Cambridge, Brighton and Hove, and boroughs of inner-city London.
York’s fertility rate was only lowered by Cambridge, Brighton and Hove, and inner London (Image: Victoria Jones/ PA)
Professor John Hobcraft, a now retired expert demographer at the University of York, explained what he thought may be the reasons behind York’s data. He referenced cities with rates marginally higher than York, such as Bristol, Exeter, and Oxford.
He said: “What really struck me is that those are your smaller cities, and the probability is that the people of childbearing age are probably moving out to the cheaper areas which surround them.
“There’s been a huge growth in the number of apartments in central York. Most people when they’re having children tend to move out of flats.
“Housing in these sort of cities is certainly very expensive, such as the inner London boroughs. The low figures are very compatible with this housing cost, but it’s hard to prove.”
Speaking on why York was so vastly different to the north of England, Prof Hobcraft added: “In some ways York is a pretty different city, it’s got massive history and it’s a wonderful place to live.
RECOMMENDED READING:
“If you think of most northern cities they are typically much bigger than York, many of the northern cities also have far greater deprivation than York which is often associated with high fertility, however perverse that may seem.
“If you go north you’ve certainly got cheaper housing than in York, to be honest it’s also the case if you go south. There’s not really other cities nearby so that concentration factor of getting people at this time that are not having children, such as students.
“I’m speculating there’s quite a lot of young professionals populating the flats in York.
“The example I always gave in my lectures is imagine a year where everyone decides to have children a year later, the fertility rate would be zero but people wouldn’t be having fewer children in their lifetime.
“People wanting children moving out and those moving out will be at a different point in their lives. It does strike me as that’s what could be going on.”
