Disasters spur investment in flood and fire risk tech

When Storm Babet hit the town of Trowell in Nottingham in 2023, Claire Sneddon felt confident her home would not be affected.

After all, when she bought the property in 2021, she was told by the estate agent that a previous flood the year before, which had reached but not effected the property, was a once-in-a-lifetime event, and that flooding measures to protect the properties on the cul-de-sac would be put in place.

However, when Storm Babet tore through the UK two years later, Ms Sneddon’s home flooded after several days of rain.

“We knew there would be water on the cul-de-sac but no one expected it to flood internally again. However, water entered the property for five hours,” she says.

“It reached to the top of the skirting boards. We had to have all the flooring, woodwork and lower kitchen replaced, which took nearly 12 months.”

Their final insurance bill was around £45,000.

She says they were fortunate to have qualified for a government scheme providing affordable insurance for homeowners in areas of high-flood risk.

Although she loves the area, her neighbours and the house, the weather is now a cause of stress. “We constantly worry about the weather, if it is going to rain longer than a couple of days, or there is a named storm.

“We do wish we had taken more steps to understand the risk. The survey showed that the property was in a medium flood zone, but there wasn’t much detail other than flood zone maps.”

Climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of natural disasters such as floods, wildfires and hurricanes.

While it might be too late for Ms Sneddon and other homeowners, new tools are being developed to help people and companies assess climate risk.

Last December, the UK Environment Agency updated its National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA), showing current and future flood risk from rivers, the sea and surface water for England.

It used its own data alongside that of local authorities and climate data from the Met Office.

It also brought up to date the National Coastal Erosion Risk Map (NCERM). They were both last updated in 2018 and 2017 respectively.

The new NaFRA data shows as many as 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, and with climate change this could increase to around eight million by 2050.

“We have spent the last few years transforming our understanding of flood and coastal erosion risk in England, drawing on the best available data… as well as improved modelling and technological advances,” says Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the Environment Agency.

“When we account for the latest climate projections, one in four properties could be in areas at risk of flooding by the middle of the century.”

The Environment Agency plans to launch a portal where users can check their long-term flood risk.

Similar resources exist for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales through the ABI.

“We can no longer rely on historical data,” says Lukky Ahmed, co-founder of Climate X.

The London-based climate risk firm offers a digital twin of the Earth, which simulates different extreme weather events and their potential impact on properties, infrastructure and assets under different emissions scenarios.

It combines artificial intelligence with physics-based climate models.

“While many climate models might tell you how much rainfall to expect, they don’t say what happens when that water hits the ground,” he says.

“Our models simulate, for example, what happens when the water hits, where it travels and what the impact of the flooding will be.”

While banks and other lenders are testing their product, property companies are currently using their services when considering new developments.

“They log into our platform and identify locations and existing building stock and in return they receive risk rating and severity metrics tied to hazards,” says Mr Ahmed.

Many parts of the world have much more extreme weather than the UK.

In the US in January, devastating wild fires tore through parts of Los Angeles. Meanwhile Hurricane Milton, which landed last October, is likely to be one of the costliest hurricanes to hit west Florida.

To help insurers manage those costs, New York-based Faura analyses the resilience of homes and commercial buildings.

“We look at the different elements of a property to understand how likely it is to survive and pinpoint resilience and survivability of a property,” says Faura co-founder Valkyrie Holmes.

“We tell companies and homeowners whether their property will still be standing after a disaster, not just whether a disaster will happen in an area,” he adds.

Faura bases its assessments on satellite and aerial imagery and data from surveys and disaster reports.

“Insurance companies technically have the data to be able to do this but have not build out the models to quantify it,” says Mr Holmes.

Other services are popping up for homebuyers. For the properties it markets, US firm Redfin, estimates the percentage chance of natural disasters, such as flooding and wildfires, occurring up to the next 30 years across each property.

“If people are looking at two homes with the same layout in the same neighbourhood, then climate risk will make or break [their decision],” says Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.

As for Ms Sneddon, following her personal experience, she now works for flood risk company The FPS Group.

“Flood risk is only going to get worse over the coming years so it is essential to find out as much as you can about the flood risk to a property,” she advises.

“Flooding has a huge impact on communities and mental health. You are supposed to feel safe in your home, it shouldn’t be a place of worry and anxiety.”