His comments come as the party reported more members than the Tories on Boxing Day, which led to a spat between party leaders Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch over their veracity.
But local Tories responded that they are winning where it matters – in terms of council by-elections.
By 10.50am today, the Reform UK membership ticker stood at 153,428, compared with the 131,680-membership total recently reported by the Conservative Party.
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Mr Bailey, who stood for Reform in York Outer at the last election and in the recent Haxby and Wigginton by-election, told the Press: “This should worry the Conservatives and may even signal the end of their party.”
This, he continued, was “deservedly so after 14 years of neglect and dishonesty that we have all suffered through.”
Mr Bailey rejected any suggestion of a pact with the Conservatives to beat Labour at the next election as “tantamount to electoral suicide.”
(Image: Pic supplied)
He recalls how Nigel Farage stood down Brexit Party candidates in 2019, only for the Tories to “squander it completely at the nation’s expense, and we will not make the same mistake twice.”
Mr Bailey says the Electoral Calculus shows Reform UK overtaking the Tories in York Central and ‘gaining fast’ in York Outer, both held by Labour.
In York, the party has formed a branch which meets monthly and will be standing candidates in council by-elections.
He added: “The Conservatives are dead in the water, and I can’t see them going anywhere but down.”
In Wetherby and Easingwold, Reform UK interim chairman Mike Jordan reports 200 members, plus 300 supporters, with 15 joining on Christmas day alone.
Mr Jordan, who contested the constituency at the last election, says “People are really fed up.”
He cites issues such as winter fuel payments, higher national insurance, inheritance tax on farmers and the WASPI women losing out despite previous assurances from Labour.
The party is meeting in Boroughbridge on January 6, has training later that month and the branch has ‘a full team’ of officials.
Mr Jordan added: “We are not going away. The Tories can do what they like. They have the numbers in terms of councillors but that will change as we go forward.”
However, Thirsk and Malton Conservative MP Kevin Hollinrake says it is votes that decides elections, both locally and nationally. Since the general election the Tories have gained 24 council seats, Reform UK 7, with Labour losing 27.
The Shadow Housing Secretary, who backed Kemi Badenoch to be party leader, told the Press: “This clearly shows that voters trust us to deliver.”
The MP of nine years also says history is littered with parties that come and go.
He continued: “Nigel Farage may well resonate with certain voters in the short term, but we remain confident that our policies, track record, and commitment to delivering for the British people will prevail.”
The Conservatives would address the issues that matter “to ensure we are the clear and credible choice to defeat Labour at the next election.”
Its leader Kemi Badenoch was listening to voters and addressing their concerns, he said.
Mr Hollinrake added: “Our ability to adapt, deliver, and lead is what sets us apart, and we are confident that voters will recognise this in the years ahead.”
Cllr Chris Steward, the leader of the Conservative Group on City of York Council, told the Press: “Although as the surge in Labour membership under Jeremy Corbyn showed, good membership numbers do not equal electoral success.
“However, Reform is a very real threat to the Conservatives and will be as long as Conservatives in power fail to deal with very real concerns about high taxes, state control, regulation and immigration.”
The Copmanthorpe councillor added: “We need clear policies and action so that the Conservative Party can resume the ground it has occupied through history rather than the last few years where it has sadly gone in the wrong direction and given Reform their opening.”
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